The Los Angeles Community College District (LACCD) was formed in 1969. Previous to that time the existing colleges, Los Angeles City College (1929), Los Angeles Trade-Technical College (1925), East Los Angeles College (1945), Los Angeles Valley College (1949), Los Angeles Southwest College (1967), Pierce College (1947), Harbor College (1949) and West Los Angeles College (1969), were administered by the Los Angeles Unified School District. The numbers in parentheses indicate the year in which the colleges were established.

The LACCD includes all of the city of Los Angeles, plus a number of surrounding communities including East Los Angeles, South-Central Los Angeles and some unincorporated areas. It is the largest community college district in the nation. Its nine colleges, now including Mission College established in 1975, enroll 100,000 students - eight percent of all California community college students.

The LACCD faces many challenges because of the demographics of the district. Eighteen percent of the district's residents are below the poverty level compared with 13 percent for all of California. Over half of the residents, 18 years or older, have less than a ninth grade education. Nineteen percent of the adults 25 years and older are not native English speakers.

Eighty percent of the students in the nine colleges can be classified as "minority." Forty percent are non-native English speakers. Almost 40 percent are below the poverty level. Nevertheless, transfer and degree awards are at state levels. The LACCD enrolls 14 percent of all African-American undergraduates in California and 12 percent of all Latino undergraduates. That is twice the number of Latino students enrolled in the University of California and only somewhat less than the number in all of the California State Universities.

Table Xa displays the ethnicity of the students in the nine colleges of the district and the total credit enrollments for the fall of the year 2000.

In terms of ethnic composition the nine colleges present a very diverse picture. In all colleges except LA Southwest and Pierce, the Hispanic students outnumber all other ethnic groups and constitute 47 percent of the total district enrollment. In general, the college enrollments reflect the racial composition of the urban areas in which they are located.

The problem of providing an educational program that meets the academic and vocational needs of the students in such diverse colleges is significant. While the individual colleges require considerable autonomy in the formation of the
educational program, it is also necessary to be cognizant of the district policies designed to prevent the unnecessary duplication of expensive and low enrollment programs.

The district has experienced several years of inadequate finances partially due to state policies that have favored rapidly developing colleges as opposed to inner city colleges. These financial restraints have prevented the district from constructing new facilities, doing necessary maintenance and purchasing new equipment. The recently approved bond issue gives the district an opportunity to partially remedy those needs.

The City and County of Los Angeles

Although the Los Angeles Trade-Technical College is located in the City of Los Angeles, because of the nature of its specialized vocational programs it serves the entire county and also the surrounding counties. Thus, it is necessary to look beyond the confines of the city when considering the service area of the college.

The County of Los Angeles occupies slightly more than 4,000 square miles, of which approximately 1,700 square miles is flat land. The elevation ranges from 9 feel below sea level to over 10,000 feel above sea level. The area of Los Angles County is greater than that of Delaware and Rhode Island combined. Los Angeles County consists of 88 separate cities, the largest of which is the City of Los Angeles.

Although the climate varies widely in different areas of the county, it is generally mild and semi-tropical, which contributes greatly to one of the county's major industries - tourism.

The Population

According to the County of Los Angeles, the total population of the county in 2002 is 9,824,800, and the largest city, Los Angeles, has a population of 3,807,400. The population of the county has increased by 7.4 percent since 1990, which is less than 1 percent per year. The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) estimates that the population of Los Angeles County will increase approximately 3.8 percent between 2010 and 2020. Thus, most projections indicate that the population of the area will increase steadily by less than 1 percent per year well into the future. Most of the population increase will in occur in the northern part of the county.

According to the U. S. Census, the adult population 18 years of age and older constitutes 72 percent of the total population. Thus the 2002 adult population of the county is approximately 7,073,856, with 2,741,328 in the City of Los Angeles. Table Xb shows the estimated growth of the City and the County of Los Angeles and the LACCD from 2000 to 2015.

These figures indicate quite clearly that Los Angeles Trade-Technical College can expect only modest enrollment growth as a result of population growth. Given the existing participation rate of 3.47 (based on the 2001 fall enrollment and the 2001 district adult population), the projected enrollment in 2015 is less than 16,000. The participation rate for Los Angeles Trade-Technical College is abnormally low because of the specialized nature of the college and its very large service area, which is

the entire community college district. However, a bond passed during a recent election providing for a general refurbishment of much of the campus as well as several new buildings should help increase enrollment, and projections now call for an enrollment of approximately 24,000 in 2015.

Ethnicity of the District

A new study printed in a recent issue of the Los Angeles Times indicated that Los Angeles is one of the least segregated cities in California. This means that, with the exception of a very few areas, most regions of the city do not have a predominant ethnic majority.

Table Xc shows the ethnicity by percentage of Los Angeles County, the LACCD and Los Angeles Trade-Technical College.

Los Angeles Trade-Technical College is located in the heart of the Los Angles business and industrial district. The area is heavily populated by Hispanics and Blacks. It is widely accepted that proximity is a very powerful determinant of college attendance. Thus, it is to be expected that the student body of the college would consist of large percentages of Black and Hispanic students who reside near the college.

However, the college was established as a specialized trade-technical college serving the entire community college district. As shown by the small percentages of White and Asian students attending the college, White and Asian students do not appear to be taking advantage of the programs offered at the college. As the college physical plant is modernized and the educational program changed, a concurrent effort will be made to attract larger numbers of White and Asian students to the college.

A map has been prepared which shows the college's attendance pattern by ZIP Code. The map shows that although the college attracts students from throughout the district and also from surrounding community college districts, the greatest concentration of students lives close to the college.

Socio-Economic Level

Within the boundaries of the LACCD the wealth of the residents varies from very wealthy to poverty. However, according to the 1990 census the Los Angeles Trade-Technical College area has a high percentage of population - 32.4 percent - below the poverty level, compared with 20.5 percent for Los Angeles County and 16 percent for all of California. Although that figure may be somewhat lower in the 2000 census, the wealth of the population in the area relative to county and state populations will likely remain the same.

The 2000 census indicates that the median household income for Los Angeles County is $36,441 compared with $39,595 for California. Undoubtedly, the median household income for the area surrounding Los Angeles Trade-Technical College is considerably lower. Unquestionably, the college is providing high quality college instruction to thousands of lower socio-economic students who otherwise would have no opportunity to enroll in postsecondary education.

Educational Level

A recent issue of the Los Angeles Times contained an article concerning the low education rate of Los Angeles workers. The article concluded that this lack of education may result in problems for the economy of the area. Rather than growth in those industries and businesses that require employees with a high level of education, the growth in the Los Angeles area appears to be in manufacturing and service areas in which workers with less education are employed.

Table Xd shows comparative education levels for selected national and California cities.

The 1990 U.S. Census indicated that 39.8 percent of persons 25 years of age and older held high school diplomas in Los Angeles County, compared with 41.3 percent for California. Given the high rate of immigration into the Los Angeles area, it seems probable that the percentage of persons with high school diplomas has not increased since then.

These statistics indicate quite clearly that community colleges in the Los Angeles area will have to devote significant proportions of their budgets to remedial education to prepare students with limited education for enrollment in college-level liberal arts and vocational programs. This poses severe problems for colleges with limited budgets because funds normally devoted to liberal arts and vocational programs may have to be diverted to remedial programs if the needs of students are to be fulfilled and if the need for an adequately prepared workforce for the Los Angeles area is to be satisfied.

Economic Condition of the District

According to the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce,
Los Angeles County is the largest county in the nation and is exceeded in population by only eight states. If the county were a separate nation, its $499 billion gross domestic product would be exceeded by only ten nations. October 1999 U.S. Census data placed Los Angeles County the highest in the nation in the creation of jobs and new businesses with a growth rate of 3.4 percent.

The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation asserts that an economic recovery cut Los Angeles County joblessness to around 5.4 percent in 2000 from a peak unemployment rate of 9.8 percent in 1982. It appears that the county has recovered very well from the large decline in the aerospace and defense industries.

Most community colleges devote much time and effort to prepare workers for the specific businesses and industries located in their communities. In the case of Los Angeles Trade-Technical College, its service area includes every known profession and type of industrial, business and service industry worker. The college must identify specific areas within this vast array in which the need for workers is greatest, and prepare an educational program to fit those needs. In doing so, however, the college faces certain constraints such as outmoded laboratories, instructors prepared inadequately for new and emerging businesses and industries, a lack of funds and facilities in which to house new programs, as well as the range of difficulties colleges encounter in attempting to close outdated programs.
In spite of these constraints, Los Angeles Trade-Technical College is making every effort to bring its programs into line with the needs of the economy in its service area. In this regard, the college has recently employed a consultant to do a comprehensive evaluation of its vocational programs.

In recent issues of the Heritage Magazine, the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce has identified several growth areas in the economy of the region.

Inflow of Capital: Record amounts of venture capital are flowing into the area. In 1999, $1.2 billion - an amount 30 times greater than the amount invested in 1993 - was invested in Los Angeles, representing the third highest total in the nation. Los Angeles produces 10 percent of the nation's manufactured goods in aircraft, aircraft equipment, aluminum, dental equipment, games and toys, guided missiles, space vehicles, gas transportation and women's apparel.

The Digital Coast: After Silicon Valley and Dallas, Los Angeles ranks third as a high tech center with 82,000 software jobs. Los Angles is the home of the greatest film industry in the world. Now it has added high technology to that industry in the production of spectacular special effects produced nowhere else.

The Biomedical Industry: The Chamber calls this area a "prescription for the future." More than 500 biomedical firms employing more than 25,000 people are located in the Los Angeles area. Many new buildings are being constructed to cater to the needs of the biomedical industry. Three major medical schools, two dental schools and several major medical and research centers serve as a magnet for firms seeking to locate in the Los Angeles area.

Design and Innovation - The Creative Edge: The bulletin of the Chamber of Commerce says, "Creativity is L.A.'s number-one industry. L.A. has the largest creative pool in the world within the most diverse economic portfolio of significant industries. L.A.'s creativity drives twelve vital industries including auto design, architecture, aerospace, entertainment, engineering, fashion, food, furniture/home design, manufacturing health sciences/biotechnology, high technology, textiles and toys." The bulletin also says that every major automobile manufacturer has a design studio or design presence in the Los Angeles area.

Fashion: Nearly every type of wearing apparel is available in L.A.'s downtown fashion district. Almost 4,000 apparel manufacturers are located in the Los Angeles/Long Beach area. The California Mart contains 1,500 showrooms and 10,000 collections. The fashion district is responsible for 80 percent of California's apparel production. The fashion industry supports more than 130,000 jobs. Apparel and textile design, manufacturing and wholesaling is one the top 109 revenue-producing industries in the Los Angeles market.

Toys: The port of Los Angeles imports more toys from Asia than any other port in the nation. The wholesaling and distribution of toys is a major industry in the Los Angeles area.

Although Chamber of Commerce reports are inclined to be optimistic, Chamber bulletins give a clear indication of the dynamic nature of the area's economy and give colleges important information about the direction vocational programs should take in the future. Through its many advisory committees and partnerships with business and industry, Los Angeles Trade-Technical College receives the kind of information needed to keep its programs current and helpful to business and industry in the Los Angeles area.

According to a recent study by the U.S. Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics, the list of the 30 fastest growing occupations for the first decade of the 21st century is dominated by the technology and health care industries (see Table Xe).

Projection of Enrollment: Table Xe shows the headcount at Los Angeles Trade-Technical College from 1991 to 2001.

The enrollment at the college has remained relatively stable except for 1998 to 2000 when there was a decline. By 2001 the college had almost reached the high point of 1992 and, if the trend continues, enrollment will increase in Spring and Fall 2002.

As mentioned previously, the population of the LACCD will increase by less than one percent in the future. Consequently, the college will experience only a small increase in enrollment as a result of population increases. It is estimated that, all other things being equal, the enrollment of the college would be slightly less than 16,000 by 2015.

It is quite clear that any significant increase in the enrollment of the college will result from an increase in the participation rate. Such an increase is dependent upon a number of factors.

Improvement in the Physical Plant

The recent bond issue makes it possible for the college to undergo an extensive refurbishment which will include the remodeling of older buildings, construction of new buildings, revised traffic patterns within the campus, the establishment of a college "center" and an identifiable entrance, and an expansion into areas near the campus.

Changes in the Educational Program

In his study "Tidal Wave II ???," George Prather identifies student demand as one of the primary determinants of enrollment growth. This is particularly true of Los Angeles Trade-Technical College because of its design as a regional college drawing students from across the entire LACCD and beyond. In order to do so the college must have an educational program that will attract students from such a wide area. If the educational program simply duplicates programs that are widely available at other colleges, students will see no need to travel to the inner city to enroll. In that case, Los Angeles Trade-Technical College becomes a neighborhood college with a defined service area surrounding the college.

Fortunately, the college has several excellent programs which are not widely available. The more the educational program consists of state-of-the-art specialized programs that other community colleges cannot offer, the greater the student demand and the larger the participation rate. Such specialized programs are necessarily expensive to establish and operate. It would probably be necessary for the college to receive a financial allocation in excess of the allocation made to colleges having a more defined service area. Programs duplicated at Los Angeles Trade-Technical College should have a demonstrable quality difference over similar programs offered in other colleges.

Business and Industry Needs

The Prather study identified the needs of business and industry as another primary determinant of college enrollment. Traditionally, colleges have communicated with business and industry through advisory committees. Although such committees have served colleges very well, there is a possibility that advisory committees can inadvertently help perpetuate programs for which there is decreasing need in business and industry.

In this age of rapidly changing technology in a global economy, there is need for a college to have more direct links with business and industry. This can most efficiently be accomplished by a comprehensive needs assessment of the current and future needs of business and industry. Such a survey may lead to the establishment of partnerships that are of great value to a college. If students know and understand that there is a close and ongoing relationship between the college and the business and industrial community and that there is a seamless relationship between an educational program and employment, they are certainly more likely to enroll in a college where such relationships are known to exist.

Ethnicity

Table Xc shows the ethnicity of the students enrolled in Los Angeles Trade-Technical College compared with the ethnicity of the LACCD and that of Los Angeles County. It is clear that compared with the LACCD, White and Asian persons are under-represented in the student body of Los Angeles Trade-Technical College. In the year 2000, White students comprised 6.9 percent and Asian students comprised 13.7 percent of the college's enrolled students. Two years later those percentages had dropped to 5.1 and 7.2, respectively. There were corresponding increases in the percentages of Hispanic and Black students enrolled at the college. The reasons for the decline in numbers of White and Asian students enrolling in the college will be studied and steps will be taken to achieve greater diversity in the student body.

If the college could attract a more ethnically representative student body the participation rate would increase substantially. One of the serious obstacles to accomplishing that goal is the fact that the White population has gradually moved away from the central city into the suburbs. The movement is ongoing as witnessed by the rapid development of the Santa Clarita area in which the Hispanic and Black populations are under-represented. That movement is not solely attributable to "White flight." Congested traffic patterns discourage students from traveling into the center of the city to enroll in college. Even the excellent occupational programs offered by Los Angeles Trade-Technical College may not be a powerful enough magnet to induce residents in suburban areas to travel to the college. Perhaps scheduling classes to begin at times other than those in which commuter traffic is heaviest could make a difference. Also, offering specialized programs that cannot be found in neighborhood colleges would draw students from more distant parts of the district. An effective marketing program is an ongoing requirement for all colleges.

Another aspect of ethnicity is explained by Prather in his study. He points out that national participation rates are rising slowly but vary significantly among ethnic groups. Asians have by a large margin the highest participation rate. However, the participation rate for Asians in California is much lower. Whites have the next highest rate. Blacks have a lower rate parallel to that of Whites. Hispanics have the lowest rate, and that is rising at a rate slower than any other ethnic group. That lower and slowly rising rate constitutes a potential problem for Los Angeles Trade-Technical College, which is located in an area heavily populated by Hispanics. Means should be found to increase the participation rate of Hispanics residing in the area. Although this would increase the over-representation of Hispanics in the college's enrollment, the immediate effect would be an increase in the overall college participation rate.

This discussion points out the difficulty of predicting enrollment increases for Los Angeles Trade-Technical College because of the lack of objective measures. The research indicates, however, that the long term trend for participation rates is slowly upward. In "Title Wave II ???" Prather says, "It is clear. . . however that little progress will be made in the next decade in bringing greater equality of participation among various ethnic groups."

Participation Rates

Changing participation rates is difficult, but major changes are underway at the college. The planned improvements in the physical plant and in the educational program will fuel the college's attempt to increase its participation rates in all ethnic categories over the next ten years or so.

The current Los Angeles Trade-Technical College participation rate based on the district population is 3.71. This rate would be much higher if it were calculated on the basis of a service area surrounding the college. Table Xf shows the LACCD population figures from Table Xb converted into the adult population of the district. Because of interpolation, these figures contain a significant margin of error but are sufficiently accurate for present purposes.

The college has projected that an enrollment of 26,500 will be reached by 2015. That enrollment would require a participation rate of 6.31, a 70 percent increase in the existing rate of 3.71. Such an increase is probably achievable, but it will require a maximum effort to inform the citizens of the district about the excellent vocational programs available at the college. Various increases in the participation rate would produce enrollments as shown in Table Xf.

Reaching the Goal: 26,500 students by 2015

A 70 percent increase in participation rate is a very ambitious goal, but several conditions make it achievable:
· The refurbishment of the campus will make it much more attractive to students. New buildings that have been needed for many years will undoubtedly play a significant role in making the college a much more attractive place to attend.

• With needed and appropriate changes such as offering classes at more convenient times for students and revising methods of instructional delivery, the educational program will become more attractive to students.
• Changes to the educational program will help establish more effective relationships with business and industry to meet the workforce demands of employers.
• Training and re-training opportunities to help keep faculty up-to-date in areas such as changes in workforce technology will help demonstrate the relevance of the educational programs to employers as well as students.
• The proximity of the rapid transit station should make it possible for many students to reach the campus and avoid the commuter traffic on the freeways.
• Some areas of the inner city are already undergoing "gentrification," which will make the inner city a more attractive environment for students.
• The "new" campus will undoubtedly increase the enthusiasm and motivation of the entire staff.
  All of these factors combined with an aggressive marketing program should make it possible for the college to reach an enrollment goal of 26,500 students by 2015.